I am looking for someone to help me create a good predictive model in predicting American Football total score outcomes, and that would calculate the probability of the match to go over or under, with the given total score bet line from the Casino.
Here is the breakdown of what I am trying to do.
1. I would list all the matches for the week and I would enter the total score bet line (over/under).
2. Enter the previous games data of each of the teams.
3. Once I run the model, it would list the best matches with the highest probability of either going over the total score line or under the total score line.
Scenario: Lets say TeamA and TeamB is playing next week and the casino gave total score line for the over and under is 40 points. With this tool, it should tell me that there is a 70% chance for this game to go over 40 points and 30% to go under 40. So in this case I will bet for the over, since its the highest probability of winning.
Here is a good article that provides important variables that affect the game outcome.