Aviation Market & Route Profitability Consultant

Aviation Market & Route Profitability Consultant Needed – Luanda (Angola) ↔ Lisbon (Portugal) Project Overview We are evaluating the launch of a new airline operation focused initially on the Luanda (LAD) – Lisbon (LIS) route and are seeking an experienced aviation consultant or aviation consulting firm to conduct a comprehensive route profitability and market feasibility study. The objective is to determine whether a new entrant operating a modern narrowbody or widebody aircraft can profitably compete against the incumbent carriers currently serving the route. This study will form the basis for an investment decision and potentially a business plan for investors and financiers. --- Required Experience Applicants should have demonstrated experience in: * Airline network planning * Route profitability analysis * Aviation market intelligence * Revenue management and pricing * Air cargo market analysis * Fleet planning and aircraft economics * Airline startup feasibility studies Experience using industry databases such as: * IATA PaxIS * MIDT * OAG * Cirium * ARC * Sabre Market Intelligence * Similar aviation data platforms is strongly preferred. Please provide examples of similar route studies, airline startup projects, network planning work, or aviation consulting engagements. --- Scope of Work 1. Passenger Demand Analysis Provide detailed analysis of: * Annual O&D (Origin & Destination) passenger demand between Luanda and Lisbon * Historical demand trends (minimum 5 years if available) * Monthly seasonality * Market growth projections * Passenger segmentation: * Business * VFR (Visiting Friends & Relatives) * Government * Students * Tourism * Medical travel --- 2. Traffic Leakage Analysis Quantify passengers traveling between Angola and Portugal via connecting hubs, including but not limited to: * Dubai (Emirates) * Istanbul (Turkish Airlines) * Casablanca/Marrakech (Royal Air Maroc) * Paris * Brussels * Frankfurt * Madrid * Other major hubs Identify: * Estimated passenger volumes * Routing patterns * Fare differences * Potential recapture opportunity through a nonstop service --- 3. Fare & Revenue Analysis Determine: * Average fares actually paid (not advertised fares) * Yield analysis * Fare distribution by season * Economy and premium cabin performance * Revenue management observations * Competitive pricing behavior Key questions: * What is the average fare currently paid by passengers? * How much pricing power exists on the route? * Are current fares above what would be expected in a competitive market? --- 4. Price Elasticity & Demand Stimulation Model: * Traffic growth if fares are reduced by: * 10% * 20% * 30% * 40% Estimate: * Induced demand * Market expansion potential * Passenger switching behavior from connecting services to nonstop service Key question: If a new carrier offers significantly lower fares than incumbents, how many additional passengers would travel? --- 5. Cargo Market Analysis Provide: * Monthly cargo volumes * Historical cargo trends * Cargo yields * Key commodities transported * Major freight forwarders * Belly cargo opportunities * Cargo revenue potential for passenger aircraft Estimate annual cargo revenue opportunity for: * Airbus A321LR/XLR * Airbus A330-200 * Boeing 767 --- 6. Competitive Analysis Analyze: * TAP Air Portugal * TAAG Angola Airlines * Emirates * Turkish Airlines * Royal Air Maroc * Other relevant competitors Assess: * Schedule competitiveness * Service quality * Market share * Pricing strategies * Potential competitive response to a new entrant --- 7. Fleet & Route Economics Evaluate the route using multiple aircraft types, including: * Airbus A321LR * Airbus A321XLR * Airbus A330-200 * Airbus A330-900neo For each aircraft provide: * Trip cost * Operating cost * Break-even load factor * Break-even fare * Estimated annual profitability * Cargo contribution * Sensitivity analysis --- 8. Scenario Modeling Develop at minimum: Base Case Expected market performance. Conservative Case Lower demand and stronger competitive response. Aggressive Case Strong demand stimulation and successful market penetration. For each scenario provide: * Revenue * Costs * EBITDA * Cash flow estimates * Market share assumptions --- 9. Regulatory & Operational Assessment Review: * Angola–Portugal air service agreements * Traffic rights * Designation requirements * Lisbon slot availability * Airport constraints * Ground handling considerations * Operational risks --- Deliverables 1. Executive Summary 2. Full Market Feasibility Report 3. Route Profitability Model (Excel) 4. Traffic Demand Analysis 5. Cargo Analysis 6. Fleet Comparison Model 7. Sensitivity Analysis 8. Competitive Assessment 9. Investment Recommendation The final report should be suitable for presentation to investors, lenders, strategic partners, and airline stakeholders. --- Project Budget Open to proposals. Please provide: * Proposed methodology * Timeline * Relevant experience * Data sources to be used * Fixed-price quote or milestone structure --- Preferred Candidates * Former airline network planners * Airline strategy consultants * Aviation economists * Former employees of airlines, airports, IATA, OAG, Cirium, Sabre, Amadeus, Lufthansa Consulting, Oliver Wyman Aviation, Seabury, etc. * Aviation consulting firms with direct access to aviation market data Please include examples of previous route studies or airline startup feasibility projects.