Determining if Chinese Exporters Absorbed Tariff Costs

Project Description: We are seeking an economist or economic researcher with experience in international trade to assist with a research project examining tariff cost absorption by Chinese exporters selling into the United States. Background: Following the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods by the Trump administration — including both IEEPA and other trade tariffs — a key question has emerged regarding who ultimately absorbs the cost of these tariffs. Conventional expectation holds that American importers bear the burden; however, some early research has suggested that for at least certain categories of goods, namely furniture and apparel knit products, Chinese exporters absorb the costs themselves, likely by reducing their export prices relative to other countries hit by tariffs. What We Need: We are looking to expand on this existing but limited body of research and conduct a more comprehensive study of this dynamic. Specifically, we are seeking assistance with the following: A review of existing academic and policy literature on tariff cost absorption in the context of recent U.S.-China trade policy. Identification and analysis of relevant trade pricing data — drawn from U.S. customs data, the U.S. Department of Commerce, and USTR — before and after tariff imposition. Note that Chinese export data is not available for this purpose; analysis should therefore rely exclusively on U.S.-side data sources. Import pricing should be measured on a unit-price basis (as measured by U.S. Customs authorities), calculated as total value divided by total quantity. This data is available through the U.S. Census Bureau's USA Trade Online platform (https://usatradeonline.census.gov/buildReport), which is the current and up-to-date source for this data. Unit-price data is available on two bases: the commodity harmonized system and the harmonized district level system; the Harmonized District Level tab is expected to contain the data most relevant to this project. Assessment of the extent to which cost absorption occurred across a broader range of goods and sectors than has previously been studied, with particular attention to low-value goods. A concise written summary of findings with supporting data. Ideal Candidate: Background in international trade economics or a related field Familiarity with U.S.-China trade policy and recent tariff developments Experience working with trade pricing datasets (e.g. U.S. customs data, U.S. Department of Commerce data, USTR data, USA Trade Online). Ability to deliver clear, well-organized research output. Additional Notes: Attached is a preliminary dataset as well as the foundational paper this research is based on. Expanding upon this dataset and conclusions will be a core requirement of the engagement, particularly to ensure adequate coverage of additional goods beyond those identified.